The Energy Transition Simulator can simulate a utility scale electrical network and is used to project future electrical demand as society transitions away from fossil fuels to becoming carbon neutral.
The Energy Transition Simulator will be an ongoing project where a rudimentary module set provides a start, and subsequent work will become incremental improvements. It can ultimately cover many aspects, including cost estimation, both construction and operating, environmental impact, and future planning.
To avoid Climate Change, we need to rapidly exit fossil fuel-based energy production, and here is a good summary of the challenge we are up against.
Within the US, each state faces a different set of circumstances, both with respect to production, and consumption. For instance, the south-west has a high level of solar irradiation, the coastal states have access to offshore wind power, while the north-west has considerable large scale hydro power.
As part of the energy transition, the automotive fleet will undergo electrification, as will home heating. Industries relying on natural gas will have to find alternative renewable sources.
The question arises how this can be done while maintaining a high level of energy security, and remain cost effective?
The Energy Transition Simulator (ETS) can simulate an electric network over time, including components such as generation, transmission, and consumption, while accounting for seasonality, weather, and time-of-week.
An ETS consists of the following components:
Generation which can simulate a plethora of power plants.
Transmission which accurately reflects High-Voltage transmission lines.
Consumption which contains bundles of major electricity consumers distributed across a geographic region.
Weather which is used to drive Generation, Transmission, and Consumption from a historical or predicted future data set.
The simulator calculates demand and will dispatch sufficient generation according to a set of user defined rules.
Simulator output can be, but is not limited to:
Network reliability metric
· Weather simulator. The weather module can be operated from historical data, or a statistical model. It will generate weather information such as wind, irradiance, temperature, and precipitation for many cells covering the state.
· Power generation module: The production simulator will cover many types of electric generators located throughout the state, and offshore. It will have to respond to consumption, but also availability such as solar/wind.
· Storage: Hourly, day-to-day, and seasonal storage must be included. Possibly coupled with input from weather forecasting.
· Consumption: This module must include an Industrial, commercial, and personal component. Some are predictable, and others are weather related.
· Distribution: No single event must overload the distribution network. With the new and additional electric load, will the existing distribution network suffice? If not, identify weak spots and find cost effective solutions to fix.
Contact ETS Team
We would love to hear from you if you are interested in joining this project. You can contact us here.
A presentation was originally made to the UNH Senior Class in Sep-2021 in the hopes that the ETS could become part of the students Capstone project. Unfortunately, too few students signed up – so we are looking for another venue to get the project going!
The purpose of an electrical network's Independent System Operator (ISO) is to "operate an electrical grid reliably and efficiently, provide fair and open transmission access, promote environmental stewardship, and facilitate effective markets and promote infrastructure development". Among their data generation is their day-ahead energy forecasting and real-time demand.
LCG Consulting is a commercial entity which provides generator dispatch case studies.